Match Prediction, Pre-Match Review & Probable Playing XI: Pakistan vs New Zealand, ICC Champions Trophy 2025

 Match Prediction, Pre-Match Review & Probable Playing XI: Pakistan vs New Zealand, ICC Champions Trophy 2025

The Stage is Set

The ICC Champions Trophy 2025 is finally here, and the tournament opener promises to be an electrifying contest between Pakistan and New Zealand at the National Stadium in Karachi. With the tournament carrying a knockout feel right from the start, both teams will be keen to set the tone with a winning performance on Wednesday, February 19.

Pakistan’s Home Advantage vs. New Zealand’s Recent Dominance

Pakistan enters the tournament as defending champions but curiously not as outright favorites. The team’s inconsistency, coupled with frequent off-field disruptions, has cast doubts on their ability to retain the title. However, with stalwarts like Babar Azam and Shaheen Shah Afridi in their ranks, they possess match-winners capable of turning the tide on any given day.

New Zealand, on the other hand, have had Pakistan’s number in recent meetings, winning three of their last four ODI encounters. They are a team that thrives in ICC events, despite lacking the sheer depth of resources enjoyed by some of their rivals. Ranked fourth in the world, the Kiwis will be confident of their chances but face a stiff challenge in unfamiliar conditions.

Venue & Conditions

The National Stadium has been a batting-friendly venue in recent times, with an average first-innings score of 289 in ODIs since 2023. Interestingly, the toss has played a negligible role in determining outcomes, as teams batting first and second have won four games each in the last eight matches at the venue. Expect a high-scoring contest where both teams will look to capitalize on their batting depth.

Team News

Pakistan:

Pakistan is likely to stick with the same XI that faced New Zealand in the warm-up match, despite their loss. Haris Rauf, who suffered a muscular strain during the tri-series, has been declared fit and will take his place in the lineup. Captain Mohammad Rizwan has emphasized stability over constant chopping and changing, meaning they will rely on their core unit to deliver.

Probable XI: Fakhar Zaman, Babar Azam, Kamran Ghulam/Saud Shakeel, Mohammad Rizwan (c/wk), Salman Agha, Tayyab Tahir, Khushdil Shah, Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, Abrar Ahmed, Haris Rauf.

New Zealand:

New Zealand has suffered multiple injury setbacks leading up to the tournament. Lockie Ferguson has been ruled out with a foot injury, while Ben Sears is also unavailable due to a hamstring issue. Kyle Jamieson has been drafted in as a replacement, and Rachin Ravindra’s availability remains uncertain after his head injury.

Probable XI: Will Young/Rachin Ravindra, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham (wk), Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell, Mitchell Santner (c), Matt Henry, Nathan Smith/Jacob Duffy, Will O’Rourke.

Key Battles to Watch

Naseem Shah vs. Devon Conway: Conway has struggled against Naseem, having been dismissed thrice in as many games by the young pacer. Pakistan will look to exploit this weakness early on.

Tom Latham’s Karachi Form: The New Zealand wicketkeeper may not have been in his best touch in 2025, but he has an impressive record at this venue, scoring three half-centuries in seven innings.

Pakistan’s Middle-Order Stability: The hosts’ batting reshuffle could prove crucial, as they have opted for a more aggressive approach in recent matches. How Salman Agha and Tayyab Tahir handle New Zealand’s pace attack in the middle overs will be key.

Match Prediction

Pakistan will have the advantage of playing at home, but New Zealand’s recent form against them cannot be ignored. The Kiwis have played seven ODIs at this venue since the start of 2023, giving them considerable exposure to conditions. However, Pakistan’s familiarity with the surface, coupled with their explosive batting and potent bowling attack, makes them slight favorites to edge out their opponents.

If New Zealand can negate Pakistan’s pace threat early and put up a solid total, they will be in with a real shot. But given the high-scoring nature of the venue, Pakistan’s superior firepower with both bat and ball should give them the upper hand.

Prediction: Pakistan to win in a high-scoring contest.